* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 51 56 59 60 57 55 56 52 50 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 51 56 59 60 57 55 56 52 50 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 39 42 45 47 48 48 48 46 43 41 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 14 19 21 19 18 23 26 32 28 29 15 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -5 0 0 -1 3 6 8 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 4 54 73 43 29 23 11 5 351 326 319 300 293 298 303 237 210 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 159 157 155 149 147 146 146 144 137 141 137 128 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 73 74 69 74 73 69 70 73 77 77 71 70 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 18 20 20 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 38 35 30 7 -8 -21 -25 -10 2 28 39 35 31 111 89 200 MB DIV 56 54 84 130 146 86 81 93 113 95 130 80 63 37 18 61 78 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -4 -7 -3 2 2 0 1 2 11 -5 -18 -5 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 1621 1561 1520 1486 1472 1330 1314 1393 1487 1581 1631 1656 1603 1493 1490 1674 1674 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.2 12.7 14.3 15.8 17.3 19.2 21.2 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.1 35.6 37.0 38.2 39.3 41.5 43.0 43.8 44.3 44.9 45.5 46.3 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 11 11 10 9 7 9 10 11 10 11 11 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 25 26 29 27 32 42 40 40 52 48 33 30 20 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 34. 42. 48. 52. 55. 55. 52. 51. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -15. -22. -26. -29. -30. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 6. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 26. 31. 34. 35. 32. 30. 31. 27. 25. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 34.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 17.9% 11.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 22.8% 8.9% 3.9% 2.2% 10.7% 15.9% 21.4% Bayesian: 3.3% 25.0% 8.3% 0.9% 0.5% 7.0% 4.6% 14.2% Consensus: 3.5% 21.9% 9.6% 3.8% 0.9% 5.9% 10.9% 11.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 44 51 56 59 60 57 55 56 52 50 51 49 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 40 47 52 55 56 53 51 52 48 46 47 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 34 41 46 49 50 47 45 46 42 40 41 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 36 39 40 37 35 36 32 30 31 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT