* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 52 62 70 72 68 67 64 62 62 66 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 52 62 70 72 68 67 64 62 62 66 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 58 61 61 61 58 54 53 56 64 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 12 14 13 18 19 30 27 28 23 18 14 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 -1 0 7 1 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 66 86 18 20 7 3 330 315 311 305 306 316 320 311 310 296 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 159 159 156 152 148 146 146 148 155 158 159 158 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 75 72 72 73 72 73 75 77 74 68 66 67 69 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 14 15 15 18 20 21 21 24 26 27 25 27 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 36 29 22 -2 -14 -26 -22 -2 13 21 32 40 39 25 20 200 MB DIV 54 94 128 141 128 116 93 140 106 104 101 40 12 10 29 87 77 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -5 -6 0 4 6 7 13 10 3 -6 -10 -5 2 8 LAND (KM) 1575 1544 1519 1501 1399 1290 1347 1440 1529 1478 1388 1236 1015 829 734 772 955 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.0 12.2 14.0 15.8 17.3 18.8 19.8 20.2 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.9 38.2 39.4 40.6 42.8 44.1 45.0 45.8 46.9 48.4 50.3 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 2 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 25 29 30 30 42 37 34 41 47 47 44 72 68 69 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 15. 25. 33. 40. 46. 50. 54. 55. 54. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 10. 13. 15. 15. 12. 14. 18. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 27. 37. 45. 47. 43. 42. 39. 37. 37. 41. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 35.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 31.1% 13.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 48.3% 24.9% 9.3% 5.4% 11.8% 17.9% 24.2% Bayesian: 5.4% 40.2% 13.1% 1.7% 2.3% 10.6% 2.7% 19.7% Consensus: 6.5% 39.8% 17.3% 6.1% 2.5% 7.5% 11.7% 14.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 39 44 52 62 70 72 68 67 64 62 62 66 71 73 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 39 47 57 65 67 63 62 59 57 57 61 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 40 50 58 60 56 55 52 50 50 54 59 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 38 46 48 44 43 40 38 38 42 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT