* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 36 36 34 36 34 37 39 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 36 36 34 36 34 37 39 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 32 30 29 28 29 30 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 20 20 20 21 16 19 15 13 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 8 5 1 1 3 2 1 -4 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 239 231 233 230 233 249 246 247 266 275 268 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 157 157 158 159 159 153 149 157 158 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 65 64 62 60 59 55 54 48 48 46 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 16 14 13 11 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 46 35 33 36 20 38 24 34 25 23 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 34 5 6 3 15 5 -1 11 -5 4 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 -1 1 5 -1 0 -3 -6 -7 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1130 1072 1020 969 905 766 661 564 505 440 343 282 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.2 21.1 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.3 53.3 54.9 56.4 57.9 59.0 60.3 61.9 63.3 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 8 8 7 5 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 42 38 41 58 68 59 63 57 56 74 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -18. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -4. -6. -3. -1. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 49.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.4% 6.7% 6.6% 4.0% 8.0% 7.5% 9.9% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 36 36 36 36 34 36 34 37 39 45 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 37 37 37 35 37 35 38 40 46 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 36 34 36 34 37 39 45 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 28 30 28 31 33 39 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT