* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 51 61 72 75 72 67 65 59 58 58 62 64 69 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 51 61 72 75 72 67 65 59 58 58 62 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 54 64 68 67 66 63 59 55 54 57 64 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 10 12 13 15 23 31 26 25 27 25 16 12 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 0 4 8 -1 7 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 44 64 40 26 16 8 337 325 319 315 308 315 318 336 333 341 323 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 158 159 159 155 152 148 148 149 153 157 158 159 159 156 158 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 74 71 75 73 72 71 76 75 72 66 66 66 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 15 16 18 22 22 21 22 25 25 27 26 28 28 32 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 25 17 11 -6 -15 -20 -18 1 16 19 39 50 44 36 13 200 MB DIV 74 101 126 118 116 136 99 131 113 111 63 48 -17 -12 30 36 33 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -3 -4 3 4 2 5 8 5 -7 -8 -11 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1539 1526 1474 1390 1328 1319 1384 1475 1465 1392 1255 1053 824 658 562 569 645 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.7 13.3 15.0 16.6 18.0 19.2 19.8 19.8 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 38.5 39.8 40.9 41.9 43.6 44.8 45.6 46.7 48.0 49.9 52.0 54.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 9 8 10 11 9 6 3 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 29 28 27 38 48 32 39 49 45 39 72 65 62 55 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 23. 31. 37. 43. 47. 50. 51. 50. 50. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -19. -22. -26. -26. -25. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 9. 8. 9. 13. 12. 13. 11. 12. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 31. 42. 45. 42. 37. 35. 29. 28. 28. 33. 34. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 37.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 32.1% 14.6% 9.1% 6.9% 12.3% 16.5% 24.0% Logistic: 8.4% 39.1% 17.5% 6.6% 4.3% 10.2% 15.0% 15.2% Bayesian: 7.3% 38.1% 13.7% 1.4% 2.1% 11.5% 1.7% 12.3% Consensus: 6.5% 36.4% 15.3% 5.7% 4.4% 11.3% 11.1% 17.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 45 51 61 72 75 72 67 65 59 58 58 62 64 69 18HR AGO 30 29 35 40 46 56 67 70 67 62 60 54 53 53 57 59 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 47 58 61 58 53 51 45 44 44 48 50 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 36 47 50 47 42 40 34 33 33 37 39 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT