* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 34 33 31 30 29 29 30 32 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 19 19 21 16 19 18 12 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 5 -1 -1 2 0 4 -6 -2 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 225 222 216 218 248 245 248 257 268 290 266 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 158 158 156 156 156 157 160 158 162 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 66 62 59 62 57 54 49 47 46 48 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 40 38 43 28 31 24 26 21 11 2 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 7 0 -1 26 14 -1 -16 -25 -36 -9 -23 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 2 0 2 3 -4 0 -7 -2 -4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1019 951 893 861 798 656 562 444 345 281 246 227 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.8 51.7 52.7 53.5 54.3 55.9 57.4 59.0 60.9 62.2 63.2 64.4 66.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 39 45 58 72 57 52 50 70 83 67 60 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 50.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 14.8% 9.9% 8.6% 6.6% 9.9% 9.8% 11.9% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.2% 3.5% 3.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 36 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 37 36 35 35 36 39 44 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 28 27 27 28 31 36 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT