* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 54 65 71 72 68 63 53 49 44 47 49 55 62 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 54 65 71 72 68 63 53 49 44 47 49 55 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 52 59 62 64 61 57 52 48 46 49 59 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 16 16 14 19 26 27 26 31 22 19 10 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 -2 0 1 4 6 7 6 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 29 27 32 29 32 13 333 318 311 312 312 317 325 321 343 334 359 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 161 162 162 154 151 147 147 152 154 154 156 158 159 154 159 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 77 76 73 76 76 73 72 74 76 73 71 69 66 67 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 18 21 21 22 22 24 23 25 22 21 20 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 17 10 6 -6 -20 -15 -7 8 3 16 34 37 29 29 4 200 MB DIV 97 115 113 100 152 123 117 104 135 101 25 21 0 -5 24 44 62 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -5 -1 4 4 4 7 3 -1 -2 -9 -10 -5 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1542 1405 1313 1252 1231 1292 1396 1480 1445 1349 1216 1078 916 782 635 554 579 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.5 14.0 15.6 16.9 18.0 18.7 19.0 18.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.8 42.0 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.4 46.0 46.9 48.2 49.8 51.3 52.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 33 40 53 41 32 40 58 45 36 48 69 62 49 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 30. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51. 49. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -26. -28. -27. -24. -23. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 12. 10. 11. 7. 4. 2. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. -0. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 35. 41. 42. 38. 33. 23. 19. 14. 17. 19. 25. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 39.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.88 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.67 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 35.4% 17.0% 9.5% 7.3% 12.3% 14.3% 16.5% Logistic: 14.6% 42.5% 21.2% 15.3% 10.6% 15.4% 14.9% 11.3% Bayesian: 11.8% 55.5% 21.1% 3.4% 5.6% 13.0% 1.6% 8.3% Consensus: 10.3% 44.5% 19.8% 9.4% 7.8% 13.5% 10.3% 12.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 18( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 47 54 65 71 72 68 63 53 49 44 47 49 55 62 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 48 59 65 66 62 57 47 43 38 41 43 49 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 39 50 56 57 53 48 38 34 29 32 34 40 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 38 44 45 41 36 26 22 17 20 22 28 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT