* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 40 40 44 46 48 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 40 40 44 46 48 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 35 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 20 18 13 13 17 15 17 18 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 -1 0 2 2 4 4 -3 1 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 206 208 214 223 237 234 251 257 271 275 271 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 158 158 156 154 155 158 163 158 165 166 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 62 62 57 56 53 52 49 47 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 45 44 41 26 43 28 28 17 13 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 31 22 30 16 8 -2 -15 -8 17 -15 -23 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 -3 -4 -3 -8 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 961 890 831 788 719 559 443 358 261 212 183 226 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.6 53.6 54.4 55.1 56.9 58.5 59.8 61.9 63.3 64.4 66.3 69.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 9 7 8 8 6 7 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 44 57 69 66 50 48 59 91 68 62 77 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.2 51.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.4% 7.4% 6.8% 4.0% 8.5% 9.7% 13.2% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 2.6% 2.9% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% 3.7% 4.2% 6.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 38 38 40 40 44 46 48 51 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 37 39 39 43 45 47 50 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 35 37 37 41 43 45 48 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 31 31 35 37 39 42 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT