* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 48 60 63 68 69 69 63 58 56 60 67 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 48 60 63 68 69 69 63 58 56 60 67 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 49 54 59 61 61 60 59 63 72 82 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 13 13 14 22 19 20 22 22 21 15 11 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 3 1 -1 1 -2 -1 2 -1 8 3 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 27 12 13 30 22 358 347 346 340 339 345 325 329 314 336 5 279 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 161 159 155 154 152 151 151 153 153 156 160 157 157 157 162 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 78 81 76 72 71 74 74 71 70 71 71 69 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 21 20 22 24 27 27 25 24 26 30 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 17 8 5 -6 -14 -3 15 25 37 59 56 57 53 47 32 200 MB DIV 95 105 113 140 156 139 161 110 129 65 51 28 10 11 64 51 36 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -3 0 3 5 8 3 4 5 4 0 1 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1411 1349 1298 1283 1279 1301 1340 1272 1184 1088 976 885 820 770 698 602 594 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 32 38 47 50 35 46 57 48 41 46 52 60 66 52 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 30. 36. 42. 47. 50. 52. 50. 50. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -20. -22. -21. -19. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 10. 7. 8. 13. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 30. 33. 38. 39. 39. 33. 28. 26. 30. 37. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 40.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.70 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 32.1% 14.1% 9.0% 6.9% 11.9% 14.0% 19.6% Logistic: 9.6% 30.2% 11.8% 5.0% 3.5% 6.9% 9.8% 6.9% Bayesian: 3.9% 26.0% 8.4% 1.0% 0.7% 3.8% 1.5% 10.5% Consensus: 5.7% 29.4% 11.4% 5.0% 3.7% 7.5% 8.4% 12.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 43 48 60 63 68 69 69 63 58 56 60 67 74 74 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 44 56 59 64 65 65 59 54 52 56 63 70 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 49 52 57 58 58 52 47 45 49 56 63 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 37 40 45 46 46 40 35 33 37 44 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT