* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 57 60 65 60 53 48 49 53 59 64 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 52 57 60 65 60 53 48 49 53 59 64 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 49 52 52 49 46 46 50 59 71 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 16 17 16 20 22 21 23 19 21 10 9 10 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 2 2 0 2 1 4 1 0 1 2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 19 7 19 18 4 7 357 358 3 356 341 343 330 308 299 299 296 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 157 157 154 153 153 153 157 158 164 160 157 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 83 81 75 70 72 76 73 68 70 71 74 75 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 17 19 20 22 26 25 23 20 20 21 24 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 15 6 0 -2 -5 -17 -9 6 22 34 46 60 56 48 43 40 39 200 MB DIV 72 59 73 116 143 181 154 129 98 81 42 14 27 50 50 66 31 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -1 1 2 6 6 9 7 5 3 2 -1 2 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 1286 1260 1245 1262 1280 1292 1275 1201 1103 983 857 771 742 738 689 654 642 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 10 7 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 39 44 56 41 39 45 49 47 55 62 59 67 61 56 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 30. 37. 43. 48. 51. 53. 51. 50. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -24. -26. -27. -25. -23. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 10. 7. 2. 0. 1. 5. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 27. 30. 35. 30. 23. 18. 19. 23. 29. 34. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 42.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 24.4% 12.3% 8.8% 6.6% 11.2% 13.1% 16.1% Logistic: 5.5% 22.4% 8.9% 2.9% 2.2% 3.9% 3.7% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 2.3% 7.3% Consensus: 3.2% 19.9% 7.9% 4.0% 3.0% 5.7% 6.4% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/27/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 52 57 60 65 60 53 48 49 53 59 64 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 49 54 57 62 57 50 45 46 50 56 61 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 48 51 56 51 44 39 40 44 50 55 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 38 41 46 41 34 29 30 34 40 45 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT