* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 40 47 49 49 44 34 24 18 17 20 22 23 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 40 47 49 49 44 34 24 18 17 20 22 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 35 37 37 35 32 28 24 23 24 26 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 21 24 21 26 26 29 33 31 19 3 14 18 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 1 -1 0 4 5 7 5 3 5 10 5 12 10 0 SHEAR DIR 344 348 349 343 348 356 355 353 348 341 330 313 330 93 106 130 176 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 151 149 149 150 149 148 147 150 154 154 150 151 161 158 162 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 84 84 83 81 78 77 74 68 63 65 66 62 63 63 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 14 14 17 18 19 17 15 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -7 -7 -5 3 31 48 66 99 107 93 94 102 109 92 85 118 200 MB DIV 79 127 137 136 160 127 109 98 110 84 71 24 50 60 66 83 30 700-850 TADV 1 6 7 2 1 7 15 21 22 9 9 8 5 10 18 25 -1 LAND (KM) 1314 1339 1365 1394 1429 1319 1227 1134 982 878 799 668 506 491 610 734 887 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 7 6 8 7 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 55 43 32 31 49 60 46 34 43 64 62 48 46 68 73 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. 46. 45. 44. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -19. -28. -36. -38. -37. -34. -32. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -4. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 17. 19. 19. 14. 5. -6. -12. -13. -10. -8. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 44.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 17.0% 11.0% 7.7% 5.3% 9.6% 10.1% 11.6% Logistic: 3.4% 12.7% 3.7% 1.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 10.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.7% 3.8% 4.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 40 47 49 49 44 34 24 18 17 20 22 23 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 37 44 46 46 41 31 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 39 41 41 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 31 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT