* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 48 50 54 61 69 81 91 96 106 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 48 50 54 61 69 81 91 96 106 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 49 52 58 66 75 81 84 88 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 3 3 6 7 12 16 23 17 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 5 12 13 8 4 1 -5 -6 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 210 228 222 191 278 292 283 266 265 266 264 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.0 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 155 154 150 151 160 169 160 163 167 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 58 55 52 51 47 43 41 44 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 17 18 19 19 22 24 28 31 31 35 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 50 65 60 46 48 53 75 76 33 22 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 39 21 51 20 -1 16 14 -41 -13 -42 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 3 3 1 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 777 721 646 583 523 417 308 184 91 62 13 27 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.4 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 55.0 55.7 56.3 57.0 58.1 59.2 60.6 62.3 63.4 64.2 65.3 66.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 8 6 5 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 65 62 57 50 49 66 78 75 76 89 97 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -0. 1. 5. 9. 10. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 36. 46. 51. 61. 65. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 54.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 9.2% 7.8% 5.5% 10.0% 12.6% 16.2% Logistic: 1.4% 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3.4% 5.3% 7.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% Consensus: 1.0% 5.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.0% 4.6% 6.3% 8.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 48 50 54 61 69 81 91 96 106 86 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 46 48 52 59 67 79 89 94 104 84 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 49 56 64 76 86 91 101 81 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 48 56 68 78 83 93 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT