* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 09/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 40 44 46 43 37 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 40 44 46 43 37 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 29 26 22 20 19 20 22 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 24 26 25 25 26 29 30 36 27 18 3 18 28 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 0 2 0 4 8 3 6 -1 6 -6 1 0 7 SHEAR DIR 340 337 333 335 345 333 343 341 342 324 323 270 189 155 186 214 220 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 147 147 148 152 148 149 150 150 151 162 152 155 158 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 80 79 78 78 74 70 65 66 63 64 63 55 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 16 19 20 18 16 15 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -15 -21 -7 33 56 72 98 111 98 102 96 126 150 160 165 200 MB DIV 118 136 133 158 167 128 118 101 91 75 51 39 42 43 31 51 10 700-850 TADV 5 6 1 0 2 6 11 16 9 -7 1 -9 -2 -1 -15 -18 -24 LAND (KM) 1407 1444 1484 1486 1478 1397 1287 1149 1053 911 709 582 602 663 790 989 1230 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 8 10 9 8 10 12 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 35 32 32 43 65 44 33 51 60 47 71 45 28 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 40. 43. 44. 42. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -12. -20. -30. -37. -38. -35. -34. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. -1. -8. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 13. 7. -1. -14. -18. -16. -13. -12. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 44.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 09/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.79 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 15.1% 9.7% 7.0% 4.3% 8.6% 8.8% 10.1% Logistic: 1.8% 7.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 7.5% 3.8% 2.5% 1.6% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 09/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 09/28/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 40 44 46 43 37 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 42 44 41 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 36 38 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT