* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 59 63 67 76 79 86 91 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 59 63 67 76 79 86 91 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 53 57 62 67 73 78 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 8 9 8 13 15 15 23 22 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 7 4 6 3 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 233 226 220 243 276 280 288 267 278 256 258 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 148 149 149 153 161 167 163 161 159 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 56 52 53 50 49 46 46 48 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 19 20 20 24 24 28 30 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 60 59 45 40 37 49 77 107 126 91 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 17 41 27 1 4 22 6 -27 1 -7 -18 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 784 727 673 623 573 469 379 293 198 143 118 64 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.0 55.6 56.1 56.6 57.7 58.6 59.3 60.4 61.3 62.0 62.7 63.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 63 56 53 50 46 53 68 78 78 76 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 30. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 22. 31. 34. 41. 46. 50. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.7 54.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.7% 10.7% 9.1% 7.1% 11.1% 12.7% 15.2% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.7% 4.4% 6.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 2.5% 6.7% 4.3% 3.7% 2.6% 5.2% 6.5% 6.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/28/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 54 59 63 67 76 79 86 91 95 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 56 60 64 73 76 83 88 92 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 50 54 58 67 70 77 82 86 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 46 50 59 62 69 74 78 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT