* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182023 09/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 30 29 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 26 27 34 35 37 39 33 30 31 24 23 21 20 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 3 -1 -3 0 6 4 8 2 1 3 5 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 326 320 315 311 319 318 318 319 314 309 282 259 254 224 216 222 248 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 144 143 145 149 150 149 151 153 148 149 153 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 74 75 72 71 66 66 64 67 66 69 69 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 21 21 21 19 16 13 10 7 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -18 -19 -7 23 49 71 71 79 71 82 96 110 91 113 92 200 MB DIV 127 177 163 140 105 84 73 38 23 38 10 51 64 50 51 45 54 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 1 8 3 6 -5 -14 -33 -20 -12 -2 -8 -11 -6 1 LAND (KM) 1560 1601 1589 1544 1501 1441 1358 1230 1121 978 864 838 896 916 940 1095 1371 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 9 9 6 5 5 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 40 38 38 44 45 40 36 56 61 57 65 69 40 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 33. 35. 37. 37. 35. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -18. -28. -37. -44. -45. -45. -44. -41. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -17. -20. -23. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. -1. -10. -21. -31. -35. -32. -33. -34. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 44.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 EIGHTEEN 09/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.79 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.4% 7.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 EIGHTEEN 09/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 EIGHTEEN 09/28/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 35 34 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 30 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT