* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182023 09/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 31 27 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 24 34 35 39 39 31 34 26 27 30 25 27 28 36 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 0 -4 -4 0 2 7 7 4 3 1 6 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 316 320 318 312 318 316 320 317 305 290 270 260 245 242 225 240 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 145 146 150 149 150 155 152 153 146 146 150 150 143 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 73 72 70 70 67 64 62 63 69 72 71 71 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 22 21 19 18 15 13 10 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -5 9 10 29 53 65 58 55 56 94 105 112 93 76 101 200 MB DIV 175 159 118 88 94 65 54 42 34 20 47 52 32 22 57 24 119 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 6 5 2 6 -5 -16 -18 -8 -3 -7 -14 -7 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 1527 1496 1468 1432 1397 1313 1222 1084 917 836 877 944 980 1070 1205 1315 1386 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.5 22.9 24.6 25.8 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 46.5 47.0 47.5 48.0 49.1 50.4 51.9 54.0 56.0 57.7 58.7 59.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 6 6 7 10 11 12 9 5 4 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 38 41 44 43 37 36 72 56 63 37 32 27 22 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -11. -20. -28. -36. -40. -41. -41. -40. -38. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -7. -11. -17. -20. -21. -19. -19. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -5. -16. -25. -32. -36. -36. -34. -32. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 46.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 14.3% 9.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 38 32 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT