* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 45 49 57 64 71 76 79 85 89 95 96 97 98 96 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 45 49 57 64 71 76 79 85 89 95 96 97 98 96 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 40 41 44 49 56 63 67 72 78 83 88 93 95 95 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 7 7 13 14 19 18 17 12 9 5 13 15 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 1 -1 2 -2 3 3 5 6 10 3 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 236 276 288 319 320 316 335 330 350 324 342 323 287 282 253 269 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 155 156 157 157 159 162 161 154 150 149 152 147 147 146 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 56 52 53 54 56 59 63 66 69 70 71 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 18 19 21 22 23 26 28 32 34 37 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 81 71 78 78 90 95 78 90 87 72 67 71 68 70 83 112 128 200 MB DIV 30 7 1 14 26 31 9 10 12 11 59 57 87 45 64 27 48 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 0 -1 -5 0 0 5 6 12 8 10 5 2 6 9 LAND (KM) 739 722 705 678 650 624 571 480 421 411 386 415 443 554 761 954 1080 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.5 17.2 16.7 16.4 17.3 18.8 19.9 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.4 55.6 55.7 56.1 56.8 57.3 57.8 58.3 58.6 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 6 7 4 5 10 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 65 64 63 62 62 59 56 54 57 56 54 52 50 62 33 35 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 37. 34. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 15. 17. 21. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 17. 24. 31. 36. 39. 45. 49. 55. 56. 57. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.4 54.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 15.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.6% 11.2% 13.9% 17.3% Logistic: 2.4% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3.2% 5.9% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.0% 7.5% 4.7% 3.3% 2.4% 4.9% 6.7% 8.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 45 49 57 64 71 76 79 85 89 95 96 97 98 96 18HR AGO 40 39 40 43 47 55 62 69 74 77 83 87 93 94 95 96 94 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 51 58 65 70 73 79 83 89 90 91 92 90 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 49 56 61 64 70 74 80 81 82 83 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT