* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182023 09/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 32 32 34 39 36 34 23 28 26 36 37 43 41 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 0 0 5 6 4 10 3 3 2 4 2 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 317 312 314 314 305 312 314 301 295 273 251 245 233 231 232 238 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.3 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 146 148 150 149 150 154 151 156 146 152 153 142 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 74 73 69 66 65 65 62 65 70 74 73 68 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 22 20 18 15 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 6 8 19 41 55 55 56 40 66 119 151 133 110 101 112 200 MB DIV 156 120 93 112 88 43 28 22 42 34 63 44 21 48 41 36 60 700-850 TADV 3 7 3 3 1 -2 -7 -22 -23 -13 -10 0 -12 -8 -23 -16 -26 LAND (KM) 1506 1471 1439 1405 1371 1296 1187 1055 913 876 926 1013 1104 1234 1387 1516 1541 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.2 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 46.9 47.5 47.9 48.4 49.5 50.8 52.3 54.4 56.1 57.3 58.1 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 10 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 41 43 44 43 36 39 65 56 72 35 29 30 31 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -10. -18. -25. -32. -36. -38. -40. -40. -39. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -23. -32. -34. -34. -36. -37. -37. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 46.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.1% 5.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 36 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT