* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 56 62 68 72 75 78 86 90 94 95 93 93 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 56 62 68 72 75 78 86 90 94 95 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 47 51 55 59 64 67 72 79 87 91 94 93 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 12 12 15 17 21 17 13 8 5 12 13 22 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -1 1 -3 0 4 7 5 7 3 4 4 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 289 307 310 308 316 324 337 331 319 314 343 254 252 252 249 244 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 157 157 158 158 158 159 155 149 151 149 146 148 155 145 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 54 54 52 53 57 61 63 66 68 70 68 64 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 18 18 18 20 22 24 25 29 32 36 39 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 68 76 71 86 83 73 75 70 65 64 67 62 68 81 106 147 141 200 MB DIV 11 14 9 13 9 24 10 45 32 29 63 90 58 55 29 61 30 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -2 -3 1 1 5 4 15 7 12 8 5 3 7 11 LAND (KM) 708 686 663 641 617 592 542 498 464 443 474 542 630 786 974 1199 1412 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.2 17.1 17.3 18.2 19.7 21.2 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.3 55.5 55.7 55.9 56.1 56.5 56.9 57.3 57.6 57.8 58.2 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 62 62 62 61 58 55 54 54 52 47 59 61 35 34 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35. 35. 32. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 20. 24. 22. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 46. 50. 54. 56. 53. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 55.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.1% 11.7% 9.4% 7.4% 11.5% 14.2% 16.9% Logistic: 5.6% 14.3% 7.8% 3.0% 1.5% 10.1% 13.8% 12.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 3.9% 12.1% 7.0% 4.2% 3.0% 7.3% 9.6% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 51 56 62 68 72 75 78 86 90 94 95 93 93 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 53 59 65 69 72 75 83 87 91 92 90 90 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 47 53 59 63 66 69 77 81 85 86 84 84 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 38 44 50 54 57 60 68 72 76 77 75 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT