* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182023 09/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 39 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 39 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 33 28 23 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 35 36 37 37 37 28 24 27 24 28 26 31 26 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -1 1 6 5 12 6 2 6 2 4 4 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 316 313 311 311 314 310 288 275 268 232 236 232 240 250 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 146 148 150 151 148 151 151 153 146 145 137 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 72 73 70 69 69 69 69 71 75 80 76 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 19 17 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -5 8 19 35 47 53 49 47 57 83 94 65 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 93 109 79 67 52 7 40 35 34 71 81 59 58 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 0 -2 -4 -13 -23 -22 -14 -10 -1 -2 -1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1522 1494 1468 1424 1382 1309 1168 1026 950 922 961 1076 1270 1484 1724 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.7 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 46.8 47.3 47.8 48.4 49.5 51.1 52.8 54.4 55.9 57.0 57.0 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 9 9 9 6 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 38 41 44 45 46 37 45 55 55 70 35 24 14 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -31. -35. -35. -35. -35. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -11. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. -23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -24. -31. -34. -37. -37. -38. -39. -38. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 46.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.09 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 8.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 39 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT