* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182023 09/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 36 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 39 36 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 38 35 30 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 39 41 41 40 37 30 27 34 30 29 24 13 9 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 7 7 6 11 0 6 0 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 313 311 314 315 308 295 273 276 256 240 225 259 221 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.4 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 147 149 151 150 153 149 140 138 139 140 129 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 68 71 69 68 69 72 76 80 79 73 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 17 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 20 23 37 46 54 47 45 45 79 80 89 90 103 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 104 72 56 36 11 33 46 42 66 109 102 68 54 60 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 -2 -2 0 -6 -31 -26 -17 -20 14 10 16 17 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1510 1494 1478 1425 1376 1271 1140 1019 1031 1084 1151 1265 1411 1600 1648 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.0 47.3 48.0 48.8 50.1 51.7 53.6 54.6 55.5 56.1 55.9 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 39 41 43 46 48 37 59 46 32 25 21 18 7 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -22. -29. -36. -39. -39. -36. -33. -30. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -16. -20. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -4. -13. -22. -33. -39. -45. -48. -47. -47. -44. -42. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 46.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/29/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 40 39 36 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT