* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 64 71 75 81 85 92 92 95 97 93 90 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 64 71 75 81 85 92 92 95 97 93 90 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 57 62 67 72 76 81 86 90 92 88 80 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 14 15 16 20 18 16 7 10 7 12 9 23 22 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 -2 -2 -2 3 3 10 3 4 3 5 3 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 294 288 297 295 304 317 333 315 310 275 256 249 245 241 228 253 268 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 162 163 164 164 164 162 156 160 157 158 149 150 145 142 126 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 51 53 55 60 61 63 64 68 67 63 54 50 47 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 22 22 25 28 29 32 33 37 38 42 45 45 43 850 MB ENV VOR 69 82 75 73 68 59 63 64 71 66 58 65 106 104 -14 -38 -12 200 MB DIV 25 15 0 -11 34 8 46 30 64 62 77 40 42 -2 -10 -28 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -2 1 0 6 5 15 8 14 10 15 2 -7 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 631 620 609 584 560 516 474 438 393 457 647 872 1129 1235 1242 1420 1669 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.8 19.0 20.5 22.5 24.7 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 55.9 56.0 56.2 56.4 56.8 57.2 57.6 58.3 58.6 58.3 58.0 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 5 7 8 11 12 9 3 5 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 61 60 57 55 55 54 54 53 68 54 31 33 27 21 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 29. 25. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 19. 19. 24. 27. 25. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 30. 36. 40. 47. 47. 50. 52. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 55.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.7% 11.3% 9.2% 7.0% 11.3% 14.2% 17.1% Logistic: 1.6% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.3% 4.5% 3.2% 2.4% 4.3% 5.4% 6.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 9.0% 25.0% 55.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 54 58 64 71 75 81 85 92 92 95 97 93 90 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 55 61 68 72 78 82 89 89 92 94 90 87 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 50 56 63 67 73 77 84 84 87 89 85 82 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 48 55 59 65 69 76 76 79 81 77 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT