* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182023 09/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 34 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 44 43 41 42 32 27 31 32 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 6 9 11 8 3 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 311 310 308 308 306 282 270 263 253 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 153 152 150 144 139 146 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 66 67 66 65 67 72 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 21 26 33 37 38 34 10 11 67 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 46 55 41 35 15 24 38 63 101 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -6 -2 -5 -17 -22 -6 -4 -5 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1470 1433 1399 1356 1303 1174 1083 1088 1171 1338 1541 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.7 28.4 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.1 48.6 49.3 49.9 51.7 53.5 54.8 55.9 55.8 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 44 46 50 47 40 52 36 23 28 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -21. -28. -32. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -20. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -29. -39. -44. -48. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.8 47.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182023 RINA 09/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182023 RINA 09/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT