* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 55 57 62 70 78 85 88 95 98 101 95 89 84 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 55 57 62 70 78 85 88 95 98 101 95 89 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 54 58 64 71 78 85 92 96 92 79 64 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 17 19 21 17 14 5 11 8 14 16 25 31 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 2 2 -2 4 3 8 1 3 0 3 1 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 277 294 298 304 308 320 321 314 288 292 237 277 236 242 237 256 277 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.6 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.4 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 163 164 164 162 157 156 162 148 152 148 147 141 130 134 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 57 61 62 62 66 68 68 61 54 48 44 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 20 23 27 30 33 34 38 41 45 43 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 88 79 74 71 67 71 74 71 73 68 75 92 112 5 -46 -50 -61 200 MB DIV 18 12 11 31 44 39 41 63 56 48 31 39 5 -32 -34 -39 -3 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 3 2 -3 3 5 9 7 13 22 8 -2 -7 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 625 616 601 568 535 516 471 426 485 600 765 980 1237 1368 1430 1614 1613 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.8 20.2 21.9 23.8 25.8 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 55.8 55.9 56.2 56.5 56.8 57.3 57.9 58.0 58.2 58.4 58.0 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 11 9 4 6 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 58 57 56 55 54 51 49 78 38 42 28 32 25 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. 23. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 18. 24. 27. 31. 27. 22. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 25. 33. 40. 43. 50. 53. 56. 50. 44. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 55.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.6% 11.1% 8.7% 6.3% 10.8% 13.8% 19.8% Logistic: 3.2% 4.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.0% 7.4% 4.7% 3.1% 2.2% 4.0% 5.2% 7.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 52 55 57 62 70 78 85 88 95 98 101 95 89 84 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 52 54 59 67 75 82 85 92 95 98 92 86 81 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 49 54 62 70 77 80 87 90 93 87 81 76 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 40 45 53 61 68 71 78 81 84 78 72 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT