* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 51 53 59 64 73 79 87 96 99 99 91 90 86 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 51 53 59 64 73 79 87 96 99 99 91 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 50 53 57 62 70 80 89 93 86 72 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 17 19 21 22 18 9 9 3 11 9 23 29 28 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 2 -3 2 0 3 0 6 0 3 0 3 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 298 294 303 304 312 320 304 291 281 286 240 227 240 246 263 275 281 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 164 164 165 160 156 159 152 148 152 152 138 129 129 136 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 58 60 63 63 63 62 63 58 51 49 43 41 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 21 21 20 23 25 27 29 33 37 40 42 39 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 82 73 68 74 76 71 76 73 64 65 84 99 81 -12 -39 -50 -64 200 MB DIV 16 21 48 58 42 65 34 45 42 41 34 38 -31 -3 -59 -13 -23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 1 1 5 4 8 6 14 12 10 7 0 -2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 592 577 563 541 520 485 419 393 475 604 771 989 1270 1454 1570 1744 1610 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.3 18.0 19.2 20.9 22.4 24.0 25.9 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.0 56.1 56.4 56.6 57.1 57.8 58.4 58.8 58.9 58.7 58.0 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 8 8 7 9 11 10 7 8 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 58 57 57 56 55 55 54 54 55 57 36 41 31 23 8 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. 23. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. 3. 4. 8. 10. 14. 20. 22. 25. 19. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 19. 28. 34. 42. 51. 54. 54. 46. 45. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 55.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.87 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.8% 11.8% 9.1% 7.0% 11.1% 13.5% 17.4% Logistic: 5.9% 10.1% 5.4% 1.3% 0.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 4.1% 9.7% 6.0% 3.5% 2.5% 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 14.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 14.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 50 51 53 59 64 73 79 87 96 99 99 91 90 86 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 51 57 62 71 77 85 94 97 97 89 88 84 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 46 52 57 66 72 80 89 92 92 84 83 79 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 44 49 58 64 72 81 84 84 76 75 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT