* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 52 54 62 70 76 85 92 93 92 90 89 79 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 52 54 62 70 76 85 92 93 92 90 89 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 48 50 53 59 66 74 84 86 81 72 62 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 20 22 25 19 19 11 10 6 10 15 23 35 41 45 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -4 -3 1 -1 0 1 3 2 4 4 3 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 286 296 305 310 313 307 299 286 292 224 262 231 252 256 267 279 277 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.5 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.6 27.5 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 163 161 158 155 159 156 143 154 154 145 129 128 120 125 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 55 58 59 62 59 59 62 61 61 58 54 49 38 38 42 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 17 19 19 23 27 28 33 37 38 40 41 42 36 850 MB ENV VOR 72 64 73 74 74 71 56 56 39 58 77 93 103 118 115 122 101 200 MB DIV 22 49 59 44 28 27 12 46 30 27 39 28 -7 -16 -59 -15 -25 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 -2 5 6 4 9 15 9 7 -6 -2 4 12 LAND (KM) 554 535 516 498 464 403 335 359 467 640 866 1124 1402 1565 1642 1658 1513 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.9 21.4 23.1 25.1 27.1 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.3 56.4 56.8 57.2 57.9 58.7 59.3 59.7 59.6 58.9 57.6 55.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 9 11 13 10 5 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 53 52 53 53 61 62 53 33 38 32 27 11 9 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 25. 21. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. -0. 5. 9. 11. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 17. 25. 31. 40. 47. 48. 47. 45. 44. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 56.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.2% 10.0% 7.9% 5.6% 9.9% 11.8% 15.7% Logistic: 2.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 6.4% 4.0% 2.8% 1.9% 3.7% 4.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 48 52 54 62 70 76 85 92 93 92 90 89 79 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 51 53 61 69 75 84 91 92 91 89 88 78 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 47 49 57 65 71 80 87 88 87 85 84 74 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 42 50 58 64 73 80 81 80 78 77 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT