* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 09/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 50 56 60 68 74 83 90 89 84 81 78 74 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 47 50 56 60 68 74 83 90 89 84 81 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 47 50 52 55 61 68 75 76 69 60 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 25 25 25 22 15 16 11 13 12 19 24 38 40 55 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -5 -1 -1 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 1 5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 302 305 310 312 315 299 298 284 282 260 247 245 236 251 260 272 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.4 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.1 27.7 26.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 165 163 163 160 161 161 156 143 154 155 151 136 131 122 115 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 -52.8 -53.5 -54.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 58 59 60 60 62 61 63 62 61 56 47 47 46 48 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 17 18 18 20 23 23 27 29 34 37 37 37 37 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 61 70 69 70 61 58 45 32 39 56 95 123 30 -18 -26 -34 -55 200 MB DIV 56 75 38 31 34 32 63 18 23 18 46 -9 -4 -27 -9 7 13 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 6 5 9 2 10 12 11 6 1 -3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 484 462 439 438 417 339 279 323 442 644 915 1143 1324 1464 1594 1635 1488 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.6 19.9 21.3 23.2 25.6 27.4 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 56.6 56.9 57.3 57.6 58.5 59.3 59.8 60.0 59.7 58.9 57.8 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 11 11 9 7 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 54 54 55 61 73 66 53 31 37 33 31 20 11 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. 26. 22. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 7. 10. 16. 20. 19. 17. 17. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 15. 23. 29. 38. 45. 44. 39. 36. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 56.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 15.0% 9.8% 7.6% 5.3% 9.7% 12.6% 16.5% Logistic: 2.5% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 3.7% 4.9% 6.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 09/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 47 47 50 56 60 68 74 83 90 89 84 81 78 74 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 48 54 58 66 72 81 88 87 82 79 76 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 45 51 55 63 69 78 85 84 79 76 73 69 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 44 48 56 62 71 78 77 72 69 66 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT