* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 46 49 56 60 65 69 73 67 58 60 61 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 46 49 56 60 65 69 73 67 58 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 43 42 41 42 43 45 48 53 60 65 58 47 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 26 27 24 13 15 12 17 12 15 22 37 51 55 47 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 1 9 6 10 0 0 7 9 6 4 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 302 309 310 310 308 307 297 269 289 245 240 242 258 245 258 280 292 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.4 28.8 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.2 27.0 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 162 166 168 164 157 157 148 135 144 145 150 139 124 114 108 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -52.8 -53.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 64 65 66 70 73 74 72 70 68 59 49 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 26 29 35 35 31 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 38 33 32 33 24 36 45 63 80 84 83 76 82 69 61 200 MB DIV 18 0 -6 0 19 53 21 48 31 59 101 106 95 75 33 19 -15 700-850 TADV -2 0 -4 -2 -4 1 2 9 7 8 9 23 40 31 7 1 -2 LAND (KM) 301 269 238 199 147 79 147 256 431 623 828 1044 1251 1456 1525 1428 1324 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 19.0 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.7 27.5 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.8 59.3 59.8 60.3 61.1 61.5 62.0 61.8 61.7 61.4 60.6 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 67 74 83 94 86 75 83 49 21 26 28 35 19 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 26. 24. 20. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 19. 17. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 11. 15. 20. 24. 28. 22. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 58.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.8% 7.8% 7.1% 4.4% 8.6% 10.1% 13.6% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 3.0% 3.6% 5.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 42 42 43 46 49 56 60 65 69 73 67 58 60 61 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 42 43 46 49 56 60 65 69 73 67 58 60 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 44 47 54 58 63 67 71 65 56 58 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 39 42 49 53 58 62 66 60 51 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT