* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 40 45 48 52 55 57 59 64 62 56 52 51 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 41 40 45 48 52 55 57 59 64 62 56 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 39 39 41 42 44 48 50 51 47 41 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 26 24 18 18 11 17 13 23 22 28 36 44 43 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 4 4 7 5 -1 4 1 7 2 4 0 8 0 SHEAR DIR 305 308 306 306 308 301 285 284 246 247 225 250 263 274 270 262 290 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 166 169 169 159 157 158 141 139 141 149 139 131 123 115 110 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 60 61 63 67 71 75 74 73 64 59 56 55 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 15 15 14 16 18 18 20 22 25 31 33 32 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 28 26 26 16 18 28 41 47 61 45 47 43 52 49 56 200 MB DIV 11 3 2 21 53 23 38 47 63 60 133 85 110 47 62 6 23 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 2 0 10 0 6 0 11 22 26 35 27 7 7 LAND (KM) 278 234 178 135 100 101 177 337 527 724 960 1197 1437 1579 1590 1556 1420 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.6 19.7 21.2 23.1 24.9 26.9 28.7 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.4 60.0 60.4 60.8 61.6 62.2 62.1 62.3 62.0 61.2 59.8 58.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 11 11 10 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 67 75 86 95 95 75 81 69 31 21 32 23 18 12 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. 22. 18. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 6. 13. 15. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -0. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 19. 17. 11. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 58.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.04 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 9.3% 13.4% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 3.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 41 41 40 45 48 52 55 57 59 64 62 56 52 51 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 42 41 46 49 53 56 58 60 65 63 57 53 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 39 44 47 51 54 56 58 63 61 55 51 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 39 42 46 49 51 53 58 56 50 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT