* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 45 58 69 76 77 78 79 80 81 79 79 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 45 58 69 76 77 78 79 80 81 79 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 45 51 54 56 58 64 75 82 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 11 14 11 16 18 13 12 9 9 7 12 11 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 -3 -6 0 0 9 11 13 SHEAR DIR 96 86 90 106 116 91 88 106 114 119 137 139 156 121 99 83 67 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.2 29.5 29.2 28.3 27.9 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 164 164 165 165 165 165 167 166 159 156 147 143 147 150 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 78 78 79 79 79 79 76 70 63 56 50 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 15 18 20 21 22 24 25 28 29 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 10 7 8 19 33 39 40 49 50 57 73 84 91 84 76 200 MB DIV 103 133 137 116 131 154 192 168 95 69 60 34 19 -1 28 9 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 749 768 766 779 790 759 688 612 529 497 460 410 481 651 843 1005 1121 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.9 13.2 14.6 16.1 17.6 18.8 19.5 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.2 105.7 107.0 107.9 108.6 109.4 110.3 111.5 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 28 25 23 23 23 26 40 73 44 25 22 13 13 35 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 8. 18. 28. 35. 40. 43. 46. 49. 53. 55. 57. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 38. 49. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 59. 59. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 100.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 23.6% 9.1% 5.3% 2.2% 19.6% 71.6% 47.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 87.8% Consensus: 0.9% 8.6% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7% 6.6% 24.0% 45.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##