* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 44 55 63 69 69 70 72 73 76 76 76 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 44 55 63 69 69 70 72 73 76 76 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 29 34 39 43 45 47 52 58 67 76 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 13 14 14 16 17 13 8 10 9 8 5 13 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 4 -2 -4 -4 0 6 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 101 107 120 113 116 94 107 128 99 106 117 166 158 131 100 83 98 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 165 165 164 163 164 165 165 162 158 152 145 138 142 144 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 76 77 80 79 79 77 72 66 60 55 53 51 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 11 13 14 15 17 18 20 23 24 28 30 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 7 11 28 31 40 47 40 45 53 79 82 79 62 60 200 MB DIV 125 129 108 112 124 140 164 123 118 58 60 26 2 17 16 28 31 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 LAND (KM) 727 734 738 756 758 726 680 623 582 566 496 491 562 674 798 874 913 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.8 14.0 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.6 19.1 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5 105.4 107.0 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.2 111.2 112.4 113.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 27 24 23 22 24 30 49 57 31 23 18 12 9 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 7. 17. 26. 33. 38. 41. 44. 48. 51. 53. 54. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 15. 17. 17. 20. 20. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 35. 43. 49. 49. 50. 52. 53. 56. 56. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 101.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 19.4% 7.5% 4.2% 2.1% 18.2% 72.2% 41.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.6% 5.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 12.1% Consensus: 0.9% 8.3% 4.4% 1.8% 0.8% 6.1% 24.1% 18.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##