* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 65 67 67 69 69 72 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 41 51 59 65 67 67 69 69 72 72 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 36 39 41 44 47 54 63 71 78 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 16 14 18 21 16 14 11 14 12 12 6 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -5 -8 0 2 -2 -5 -4 -3 2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 102 112 111 110 104 101 110 107 108 95 111 106 126 161 143 126 179 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 165 165 165 163 164 163 164 164 162 160 157 154 146 142 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 77 78 80 80 79 77 69 65 61 55 53 50 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 11 14 15 17 19 21 23 24 28 29 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 10 14 22 27 41 42 42 46 52 73 84 89 77 69 59 200 MB DIV 115 96 118 134 122 156 126 101 83 78 73 56 16 5 9 0 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 727 737 752 751 731 701 660 614 575 576 563 532 491 448 418 425 445 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.7 104.6 105.5 106.3 107.5 108.4 109.1 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.7 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 6 4 5 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 24 23 22 22 26 32 53 60 42 25 23 23 18 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -0. 6. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 42. 46. 50. 51. 52. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 20. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 39. 45. 47. 47. 49. 49. 52. 52. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 102.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 14.2% 4.8% 2.4% 2.1% 10.9% 67.0% 32.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 4.8% Consensus: 0.6% 6.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.8% 3.7% 22.4% 12.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##