* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 49 53 58 62 67 72 71 66 62 60 57 56 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 49 53 58 62 67 72 71 66 62 60 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 50 54 58 61 57 47 39 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 17 18 19 13 12 17 19 25 38 46 54 27 32 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 4 2 8 3 2 7 6 5 3 -12 1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 308 313 310 305 305 271 278 236 245 238 258 258 259 266 261 236 236 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 29.6 28.6 27.9 26.7 26.0 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 166 160 158 161 156 143 147 147 162 145 135 121 114 114 113 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.6 -55.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 63 65 71 73 76 76 70 65 54 46 42 44 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 18 19 20 24 28 33 34 32 32 32 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 31 23 26 37 35 65 69 92 96 104 93 84 80 56 -41 200 MB DIV 16 38 28 18 23 45 39 48 91 122 57 105 10 3 43 19 61 700-850 TADV 0 5 2 3 5 4 3 4 -1 15 36 41 57 24 18 17 24 LAND (KM) 124 79 38 72 120 221 359 536 754 976 1179 1390 1377 1271 1163 1029 828 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 20.2 21.6 23.3 25.3 27.2 28.8 30.5 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.0 61.5 61.7 61.9 62.4 62.7 62.6 62.4 61.7 60.6 59.6 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 93 93 81 76 75 97 64 29 27 38 32 22 17 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. 17. 13. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 19. 20. 16. 14. 13. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 26. 21. 17. 15. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 60.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 12.9% 8.5% 7.5% 4.9% 9.1% 10.8% 13.6% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 3.3% 4.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 46 49 53 58 62 67 72 71 66 62 60 57 56 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 48 52 57 61 66 71 70 65 61 59 56 55 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 45 49 54 58 63 68 67 62 58 56 53 52 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 42 47 51 56 61 60 55 51 49 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT