* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 32 36 42 49 57 57 58 58 57 57 60 61 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 32 36 42 49 57 57 58 58 57 57 60 61 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 43 44 44 44 44 47 52 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 16 17 22 19 19 17 16 13 17 8 7 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -6 -6 -5 -5 0 -1 1 -3 -4 -3 5 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 96 96 93 92 93 107 109 100 100 83 87 98 105 96 87 119 133 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 165 165 165 164 162 161 164 162 159 154 151 146 148 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 78 79 80 82 81 76 73 70 66 64 64 63 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 12 13 16 16 18 19 20 21 23 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 8 14 19 28 41 44 39 44 47 65 79 78 71 64 68 200 MB DIV 78 105 108 116 125 143 115 105 64 78 88 39 14 26 38 49 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 800 828 821 824 817 780 728 668 642 654 705 690 708 729 754 764 759 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.6 106.5 107.2 107.9 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.8 110.4 111.3 112.3 113.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 21 22 24 26 28 37 47 39 27 21 18 16 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 357 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. 43. 46. 47. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -11. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 24. 32. 32. 33. 33. 32. 32. 35. 36. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 104.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 34.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 19.4% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% Consensus: 0.2% 11.7% 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 9.1% 17.9% 5.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##