* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 41 40 44 47 50 54 60 62 62 59 57 51 52 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 41 40 44 47 50 54 60 62 62 59 57 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 43 42 42 41 42 44 48 52 51 49 45 40 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 23 23 16 18 12 17 13 24 26 31 26 23 20 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 0 5 0 1 0 2 7 7 4 9 4 4 7 SHEAR DIR 310 307 307 308 296 287 246 249 237 256 257 251 238 246 228 221 202 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.3 27.3 26.2 26.0 26.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 166 162 159 159 159 149 143 148 155 152 140 127 116 114 117 89 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -53.4 -54.5 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 65 68 74 78 81 81 69 65 56 49 50 46 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 11 13 14 16 19 23 25 26 26 26 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 33 24 11 9 17 20 22 31 58 77 92 73 83 76 58 28 9 200 MB DIV 26 23 13 -2 13 58 80 71 114 108 94 45 75 39 16 -4 -4 700-850 TADV 2 -4 0 0 4 -2 2 -1 5 23 38 47 58 36 19 10 8 LAND (KM) 65 36 64 123 158 293 456 633 840 1072 1307 1409 1273 1123 964 806 614 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.9 22.6 24.3 26.2 28.2 30.1 31.7 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.5 61.8 62.0 62.2 62.6 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.2 60.9 59.8 59.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 92 82 75 76 85 84 41 24 35 40 25 25 10 0 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 15. 10. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. 1. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 17. 17. 14. 12. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 61.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 11.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 10.3% 14.4% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.9% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 41 40 44 47 50 54 60 62 62 59 57 51 52 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 41 40 44 47 50 54 60 62 62 59 57 51 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 39 43 46 49 53 59 61 61 58 56 50 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 38 41 44 48 54 56 56 53 51 45 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT