* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 44 50 55 57 55 57 55 56 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 44 50 55 57 55 57 55 56 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 41 43 45 47 50 52 55 56 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 18 23 22 21 20 18 17 20 22 16 21 16 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 1 -1 -6 -3 -2 0 0 0 -5 -3 3 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 87 83 78 94 100 96 90 93 82 89 97 122 122 119 111 118 146 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 165 165 165 165 162 161 161 160 159 160 160 158 154 157 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 78 78 77 78 78 78 75 73 70 69 74 76 72 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 20 22 23 25 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 21 21 22 38 38 39 36 45 51 74 70 77 68 62 62 200 MB DIV 100 101 114 142 158 118 78 60 73 40 87 68 67 93 76 51 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 886 881 879 852 832 771 731 668 647 662 690 716 723 742 710 691 686 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 21 24 26 28 33 41 42 41 41 39 30 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. 47. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -17. -15. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 19. 25. 30. 32. 30. 32. 30. 31. 30. 29. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 105.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.5% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 23.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 10.5% 13.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% Consensus: 0.2% 10.3% 7.2% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 11.4% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##