* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982023 10/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 50 55 55 56 56 54 54 54 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 50 55 55 56 56 54 54 54 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 44 47 50 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 18 22 23 20 19 16 16 16 20 17 20 17 18 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 4 0 -4 -8 -2 2 0 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 85 87 99 109 109 95 102 89 90 99 113 116 110 117 111 128 168 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 167 167 166 166 162 162 165 167 164 161 158 155 151 148 152 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 79 78 76 78 79 81 77 76 71 69 68 72 71 68 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 15 15 18 20 21 23 22 23 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 22 27 30 40 45 38 50 51 70 66 72 64 59 47 53 200 MB DIV 104 125 148 165 135 123 50 61 57 63 72 47 61 66 58 52 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 835 805 787 770 750 669 607 592 551 578 650 668 672 727 801 819 769 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 5 4 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 37 57 64 46 34 28 23 22 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 41. 45. 47. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 14. 13. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 25. 30. 30. 31. 31. 29. 29. 29. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 105.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 10/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.87 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 7.0% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% Consensus: 0.2% 8.2% 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 7.6% 8.3% 4.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 10/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##