* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 52 56 61 61 61 67 65 67 67 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 47 52 56 61 61 61 67 65 67 67 67 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 46 49 51 55 59 62 66 68 72 76 80 86 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 26 24 21 19 16 14 15 16 15 13 13 10 12 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -6 -1 -2 0 3 -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 -6 0 3 SHEAR DIR 79 92 100 107 104 94 107 85 92 106 125 100 126 119 123 154 226 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 166 166 167 166 164 163 165 166 166 163 162 160 155 151 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 79 80 80 81 77 76 75 75 76 78 76 74 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 15 15 17 22 22 23 24 24 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 21 25 35 35 45 38 53 58 72 59 73 65 41 41 46 200 MB DIV 109 138 127 102 100 87 71 89 53 79 79 48 65 92 61 40 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 2 1 -2 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 826 794 771 753 730 672 585 545 527 541 587 633 668 690 727 780 838 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 3 3 2 4 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 24 25 27 30 41 54 64 62 50 41 31 23 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -9. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 16. 15. 16. 15. 14. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 26. 26. 26. 32. 30. 32. 32. 32. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 22.6% 18.6% 15.5% 9.6% 22.5% 19.2% 42.4% Logistic: 1.1% 6.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 6.6% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% Consensus: 4.5% 10.4% 6.7% 5.5% 3.4% 8.1% 8.6% 24.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##