* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 36 37 39 42 48 53 53 59 63 58 54 49 47 49 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 36 37 39 42 48 53 53 59 63 58 54 49 40 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 35 35 38 39 39 39 38 36 31 27 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 24 21 19 20 22 29 37 38 26 18 25 41 39 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 2 2 1 0 -1 10 4 2 7 4 4 7 0 SHEAR DIR 301 292 272 266 253 218 236 224 241 230 224 233 206 205 206 203 196 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.5 26.7 26.1 24.1 18.1 17.1 15.9 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 163 163 165 163 153 152 148 144 131 122 117 100 74 71 71 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 69 71 72 81 82 77 71 64 63 60 48 29 41 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 14 16 20 23 25 29 32 28 26 23 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 21 13 8 29 45 67 83 103 98 93 142 100 -25 -12 -57 200 MB DIV 5 30 51 30 66 80 100 126 77 119 70 77 69 34 52 86 42 700-850 TADV -2 3 0 -2 -1 1 6 21 43 47 65 25 46 -4 11 80 12 LAND (KM) 66 69 138 217 297 479 691 941 1194 1213 1067 796 464 261 125 -7 20 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 23.0 24.9 27.2 29.5 31.7 34.1 36.9 40.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.6 64.8 65.2 65.4 65.0 64.4 63.5 62.5 62.0 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 12 11 12 13 15 14 10 9 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 75 73 65 61 56 42 33 20 18 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -16. -14. -12. -10. -8. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 6. 10. 12. 18. 21. 15. 10. 4. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 2. 8. 13. 13. 19. 23. 18. 14. 9. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 63.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.1% 6.4% 6.0% 3.2% 7.4% 7.8% 10.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 36 37 39 42 48 53 53 59 63 58 54 49 40 47 18HR AGO 40 39 39 37 38 40 43 49 54 54 60 64 59 55 50 41 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 35 37 40 46 51 51 57 61 56 52 47 38 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 36 42 47 47 53 57 52 48 43 34 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT