* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 38 39 44 50 55 61 64 66 67 67 64 62 65 65 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 38 39 44 50 55 61 64 66 67 67 64 62 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 41 44 48 50 52 56 61 62 59 58 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 20 18 23 20 20 13 15 14 23 24 16 6 9 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 -2 -3 -6 -6 3 0 0 -2 0 2 0 0 7 10 SHEAR DIR 87 95 101 100 89 93 92 89 122 90 101 87 98 104 100 185 246 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 162 163 162 161 161 161 160 160 160 159 153 150 148 144 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 79 78 78 77 76 70 71 72 75 68 65 60 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 15 16 18 19 22 24 25 26 27 26 24 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 33 43 40 38 33 40 41 50 53 51 64 65 71 82 99 200 MB DIV 118 137 136 146 120 77 49 104 46 84 68 98 125 69 44 19 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 1 -1 0 1 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 820 803 789 766 745 693 668 701 748 792 840 893 939 991 1020 994 915 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.9 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.3 109.6 110.1 110.9 111.4 111.8 112.7 114.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 4 4 2 4 3 2 4 5 6 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 37 42 47 52 60 22 16 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 27. 30. 34. 36. 38. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. -17. -13. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 13. 9. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 29. 27. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 107.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 19.3% 16.5% 13.6% 0.0% 19.9% 17.0% 24.6% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% Consensus: 3.2% 6.8% 5.7% 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% 6.1% 10.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% 12.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##