* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 40 40 45 49 57 54 56 60 62 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 37 38 40 40 45 49 57 54 56 42 31 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 33 34 35 37 39 43 43 39 32 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 23 24 22 24 16 32 29 24 11 30 54 36 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 -2 2 1 5 6 5 5 5 11 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 268 259 248 230 238 207 230 237 226 197 191 163 155 200 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.3 25.7 25.5 23.2 16.7 15.5 11.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 165 161 158 155 151 138 129 112 111 95 73 71 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.6 -52.6 -49.7 -47.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 2.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 69 71 74 77 81 82 77 71 63 63 56 41 35 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 18 21 27 26 26 27 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 10 10 12 35 70 78 102 114 89 139 175 182 181 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 37 30 50 85 97 156 77 127 104 106 89 69 78 50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 0 8 22 28 85 87 43 27 -10 -44 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 64 140 215 307 399 598 804 1116 1129 978 744 414 100 -72 -126 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.1 23.9 26.0 28.8 31.5 34.2 37.0 40.1 43.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.5 65.8 66.1 66.1 65.4 64.6 64.1 63.7 63.6 63.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 10 12 14 14 14 15 16 15 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 75 66 62 57 56 48 30 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 13. 14. 17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 4. 8. 16. 13. 12. 12. 10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 5. 9. 17. 14. 16. 20. 22. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.3 64.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 14.2% 9.3% 7.9% 5.6% 9.3% 9.8% 10.9% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/03/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 37 37 38 40 40 45 49 57 54 56 42 31 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 39 41 41 46 50 58 55 57 43 32 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 37 39 39 44 48 56 53 55 41 30 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 33 33 38 42 50 47 49 35 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT