* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/03/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 47 53 60 61 65 65 67 64 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 37 40 47 53 60 61 65 65 67 64 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 42 44 47 50 55 58 59 61 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 20 20 22 19 18 15 16 13 17 16 9 7 9 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 -5 -4 -8 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 1 0 9 7 SHEAR DIR 95 97 100 93 87 112 92 109 100 108 96 116 103 104 257 230 258 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 164 162 161 162 161 160 159 156 157 152 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 79 77 77 76 75 73 75 77 79 73 71 66 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 16 20 21 24 24 26 27 29 26 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 41 38 38 31 33 43 43 49 59 57 53 55 67 75 98 200 MB DIV 121 128 136 117 94 46 85 39 90 67 86 127 131 79 17 26 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 777 767 754 728 706 668 661 668 733 801 821 851 904 921 916 871 784 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.1 113.0 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 24 25 27 31 37 37 42 44 45 55 35 24 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -15. -11. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 9. 14. 14. 17. 17. 18. 13. 14. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 25. 26. 30. 30. 32. 29. 31. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 107.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.8% 14.0% 11.1% 0.0% 16.9% 15.4% 19.6% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 2.3% 5.3% 4.7% 3.7% 0.0% 5.6% 5.3% 7.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/03/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##