* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 39 40 41 41 40 39 43 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 39 40 41 41 40 39 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 38 37 36 35 34 32 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 22 25 24 30 31 41 29 29 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 3 2 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 263 258 232 219 223 201 221 202 196 184 149 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.1 25.7 24.8 19.4 12.6 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 158 160 152 141 127 113 105 80 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -53.1 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 74 77 79 79 76 71 65 64 59 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 17 10 14 37 47 81 94 110 127 178 248 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 16 43 82 96 121 101 71 104 147 139 92 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 8 18 33 44 53 47 -33 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 240 317 409 487 671 967 1047 912 646 366 59 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.0 25.0 27.8 30.9 33.8 36.7 39.9 43.7 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.6 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.9 66.6 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.3 66.8 67.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 12 15 15 14 15 18 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 63 62 64 74 38 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 16. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 3. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.9 65.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.9% 9.6% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 38 37 39 40 41 41 40 39 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 37 39 40 41 41 40 39 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 37 38 39 39 38 37 41 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 32 33 33 32 31 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT