* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 35 39 43 48 52 50 55 55 55 55 57 59 58 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 35 39 43 48 52 50 55 55 55 55 57 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 34 35 36 37 39 41 44 45 45 47 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 24 24 27 21 18 17 20 15 21 20 18 9 3 14 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -1 -4 -7 -7 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 3 -3 -6 6 18 17 SHEAR DIR 98 104 100 102 110 106 95 103 103 108 98 107 102 135 160 230 215 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 164 163 162 161 161 160 159 157 158 154 149 148 148 150 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 77 75 74 72 69 69 69 75 75 72 67 62 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 16 18 19 20 19 23 24 23 23 23 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 37 36 30 28 33 37 49 59 60 52 48 42 48 56 95 200 MB DIV 118 125 110 120 90 54 56 32 51 72 72 92 86 80 65 37 11 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -8 LAND (KM) 741 722 699 683 670 653 672 709 803 835 861 882 925 941 907 840 759 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 108.8 109.1 109.5 110.0 110.6 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.5 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 26 27 30 33 37 42 47 49 50 40 22 24 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -19. -14. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 4. 8. 13. 17. 15. 20. 20. 20. 21. 22. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 107.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 14.2% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 16.0% 14.5% 14.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##