* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 43 44 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 43 44 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 38 38 37 35 33 31 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 21 22 24 17 32 37 31 31 31 37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 -2 0 2 1 0 9 9 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 260 236 228 241 205 219 208 216 187 172 142 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.9 27.9 26.6 25.2 23.7 14.3 14.2 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 158 158 159 152 137 122 109 98 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -50.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 77 77 78 78 72 70 64 62 56 53 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 16 30 34 63 71 108 103 123 230 255 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 42 91 98 118 111 77 127 100 153 125 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 9 23 25 47 54 63 34 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 281 373 460 535 803 1122 1016 791 491 194 -127 -278 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.4 26.1 29.1 31.9 35.4 38.7 41.9 46.1 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.6 65.9 66.1 66.4 66.4 65.9 65.7 65.7 65.7 66.2 67.8 70.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 11 14 15 16 17 16 19 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 59 58 61 66 30 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 13. 15. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 9. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 65.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 43 44 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 43 43 42 43 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 38 39 40 40 39 40 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT