* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/04/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 42 45 48 56 59 62 61 59 58 59 60 61 64 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 42 45 48 56 59 62 61 59 58 59 60 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 44 46 50 54 56 56 55 53 52 54 62 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 23 27 26 17 16 16 17 20 24 24 19 9 2 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -6 -10 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -5 0 7 10 SHEAR DIR 101 96 103 108 116 97 88 85 97 99 106 93 102 105 10 309 277 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 163 162 161 161 161 160 158 157 157 153 150 149 149 151 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 80 77 76 76 75 72 71 71 72 72 70 66 59 55 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 14 15 16 20 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 35 34 31 28 35 46 59 68 64 65 68 63 57 65 78 200 MB DIV 138 114 102 83 63 42 65 73 20 81 128 111 51 23 18 -14 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 710 678 651 643 637 647 690 748 827 858 890 905 905 884 850 793 712 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.9 111.9 112.6 113.2 113.8 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 27 29 33 34 37 46 49 50 57 45 30 26 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -19. -14. -11. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 19. 22. 21. 19. 18. 19. 20. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 108.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.6% 16.7% 13.9% 0.0% 19.9% 17.1% 23.8% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 5.7% 4.7% 0.1% 6.7% 6.0% 9.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##