* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 43 45 49 54 60 66 78 88 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 43 45 49 54 60 66 62 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 41 42 45 46 47 43 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 19 23 18 23 30 26 15 24 48 26 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 3 0 4 11 9 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 233 233 243 238 205 226 212 217 199 150 128 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.8 26.0 25.1 15.3 14.0 11.4 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 151 148 141 136 116 109 72 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -53.5 -53.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 77 77 78 77 76 72 65 66 64 62 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 15 17 20 22 27 31 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 28 33 43 84 96 116 116 174 251 279 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 81 74 101 114 110 88 107 122 129 98 99 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 6 11 20 47 78 135 162 -11 -15 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 259 341 424 546 670 979 1138 999 639 276 -27 -177 -307 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.5 24.6 27.6 30.6 33.6 37.2 41.1 45.3 49.5 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.8 65.9 66.0 66.0 65.8 65.1 65.0 65.3 65.9 67.2 70.0 74.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 15 15 16 19 20 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 54 53 51 39 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 16. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 26. 38. 48. 40. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.8 65.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 8.7% 7.1% 4.4% 8.8% 8.3% 9.1% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.5% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 43 45 49 54 60 66 62 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 43 47 52 58 64 60 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 44 49 55 61 57 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 37 42 48 54 50 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT