* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 49 51 55 59 62 63 65 60 59 58 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 49 51 55 59 62 63 65 60 59 58 60 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 52 54 55 57 60 62 62 59 54 53 54 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 26 23 17 18 17 21 19 22 22 22 12 9 5 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -8 -5 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 3 0 0 1 4 11 5 SHEAR DIR 96 98 109 115 103 94 87 94 94 101 86 101 114 134 218 194 224 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 160 160 161 159 158 156 156 155 152 148 147 148 151 158 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 75 76 74 73 74 71 70 71 71 75 73 69 64 61 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 18 20 21 23 25 28 26 26 25 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 30 28 30 41 40 54 59 66 62 63 43 40 29 52 74 200 MB DIV 131 100 88 61 51 51 61 58 96 96 111 56 -6 1 -22 20 44 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 -1 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 663 649 637 637 638 651 718 794 851 880 895 900 887 874 853 791 716 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 108.9 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.4 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 28 29 35 36 39 46 48 55 47 33 29 29 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -16. -13. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 13. 11. 9. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 20. 15. 14. 13. 15. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 108.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 22.5% 19.0% 16.3% 10.7% 21.9% 18.7% 18.6% Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 4.3% 8.2% 6.5% 5.5% 3.7% 7.4% 6.6% 7.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##