* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/04/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 49 62 71 85 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 49 62 71 34 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 32 32 33 36 42 45 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 23 20 17 27 24 23 42 46 26 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 2 1 6 4 3 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 240 240 238 210 226 208 200 170 155 155 144 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 26.4 24.8 19.3 13.8 11.7 11.9 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 148 146 139 120 107 81 72 69 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.0 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 78 76 72 69 63 62 63 65 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 15 24 27 33 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 37 45 72 77 96 101 121 221 267 264 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 81 105 126 145 86 133 146 155 108 78 75 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 6 11 16 27 56 94 66 62 0 -14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 504 608 744 886 1148 1012 698 340 12 -110 -416 -319 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.1 24.0 25.4 26.8 29.8 33.2 36.6 40.5 45.0 49.7 52.8 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.6 65.1 65.2 65.5 66.8 68.8 70.9 72.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 14 15 16 17 19 21 24 21 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 54 46 41 22 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 13. 18. 26. 15. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 27. 36. 50. 45. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.1 65.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.7% 8.1% 6.4% 3.9% 7.8% 7.2% 6.9% Logistic: 0.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 5.2% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/04/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 49 62 71 34 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 38 40 48 61 70 33 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 34 36 44 57 66 29 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 30 38 51 60 23 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT