* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172023 10/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 54 59 65 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 54 59 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 38 37 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 28 28 26 31 42 32 14 34 55 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 3 -4 5 9 11 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 244 239 216 214 216 202 175 162 157 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.7 25.2 22.2 13.6 11.6 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 144 137 124 110 91 71 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.6 -53.6 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 77 72 68 60 65 65 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 13 14 16 20 25 26 26 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 43 64 80 77 89 72 144 229 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 94 120 157 120 57 134 141 150 79 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 14 16 12 27 32 55 72 102 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 521 643 758 907 1055 1046 822 468 39 -61 -455 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.4 25.5 27.0 28.4 31.8 35.3 39.1 43.4 48.2 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.9 65.4 65.2 65.6 66.3 68.1 70.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 13 14 16 18 18 21 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 40 41 19 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 15. 14. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 19. 24. 30. 48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 66.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.3% 7.3% 5.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172023 PHILIPPE 10/05/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 43 47 54 59 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 41 45 52 57 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 37 41 48 53 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 33 40 45 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT