* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP152023 10/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 54 59 64 68 68 63 63 60 58 61 64 64 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 54 59 64 68 68 63 63 60 58 61 64 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 52 56 61 62 61 59 56 55 60 69 77 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 17 17 19 18 19 19 27 24 22 11 5 1 2 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 1 2 1 -1 4 18 10 0 SHEAR DIR 107 115 103 100 98 97 95 80 91 90 92 88 140 133 207 302 265 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 161 160 159 156 154 153 150 147 144 144 144 146 150 155 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -51.0 -50.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -49.9 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 70 71 66 63 61 63 63 62 59 58 58 52 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 17 18 20 23 26 27 27 29 27 26 27 30 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 33 37 44 48 55 65 74 68 55 48 48 48 78 93 102 200 MB DIV 69 46 55 46 38 52 58 66 71 66 27 6 9 42 48 -19 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 637 635 636 659 682 740 797 847 860 886 905 896 853 838 816 731 599 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.6 109.9 110.2 110.5 111.1 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.4 114.9 115.2 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 40 40 39 37 38 43 43 38 27 21 20 19 19 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -17. -15. -11. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 15. 17. 15. 11. 12. 14. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 23. 18. 18. 15. 13. 16. 19. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.4 109.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 23.8% 18.9% 15.6% 11.2% 22.1% 23.2% 18.6% Logistic: 0.8% 5.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.7% 6.5% 5.3% 3.9% 7.4% 7.8% 6.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152023 LIDIA 10/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##